Our system has released a Rapid Reaction report addressing growing recession fears and heightened market volatility. Key takeaways include:
- Uncertainty around trade policies and tariffs is fueling economic concerns, with recent announcements causing a sharp market downturn.
- The S&P 500 has slipped into negative territory post-election, with Materials and Technology sectors taking the hardest hits.
- Yield curve inversion has reappeared, historically signaling recession risk, though distortions from the Fed’s "higher for longer" rate policy must be considered.
- The NBER recession indicators show a mixed picture, with employment and economic activity still holding up despite warning signs in consumption and retail data.
- While GDP may take a -0.4% hit from tariffs, global output and leading indicators remain stable, providing some economic tailwinds.
Overall, the report suggests that while volatility remains high, the current data does not yet confirm an imminent recession. Click the link above to learn more!